Does a Blood Indicator Predict Cardiovascular Diseases and Diabetes?

A simple blood indicator could help predict the risk of cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and hypertension long before the first symptoms appear. This indicator, called the plasma atherogenic index, is calculated from the ratio of triglycerides to good cholesterol (HDL) in the blood. The higher this index, the greater the risk of developing serious health problems seems to be.

A study conducted with over 2,000 people in Western Europe followed participants for more than ten years. The results show that this index remains stable over time, unlike other markers such as blood pressure or blood sugar levels, which tend to increase with age. Yet, it is this index that has proven to be an independent predictor of the onset of hypertension, diabetes, and a condition called left ventricular hypertrophy. The latter corresponds to a thickening of the heart muscle, often linked to excessively high blood pressure or excessive strain on the heart.

Researchers also observed that individuals with a high plasma atherogenic index had an increased risk of experiencing cardiovascular events, whether fatal or not. These events include heart attacks, strokes, and heart failure. The study thus confirms that this index could be a valuable tool for identifying at-risk individuals, even in populations where the overall cardiovascular risk is low.

The plasma atherogenic index reflects an imbalance between harmful and protective fats in the blood. Excess triglycerides promote the buildup of plaques in the arteries, while good cholesterol, or HDL, helps remove these deposits. When this ratio is unbalanced, the risk of atherosclerosis increases. Atherosclerosis is a process in which arteries narrow and harden due to the buildup of fats, which can lead to blockages and cause heart disease.

The mechanisms explaining why this index is linked to hypertension and diabetes are not yet fully understood. However, researchers believe that excess triglycerides in the blood may promote insulin resistance, a hormone essential for regulating blood sugar. This resistance is a key factor in the development of type 2 diabetes. Additionally, it may also contribute to vascular dysfunction, such as reduced production of nitric oxide, a molecule that helps keep arteries flexible and healthy. Without enough nitric oxide, blood vessels become stiffer and less able to dilate, which increases blood pressure.

The study also revealed that the plasma atherogenic index was particularly useful for predicting the development of diabetes. Individuals with a high index were up to three and a half times more likely to develop this disease than those with a low index. For hypertension and left ventricular hypertrophy, the risk was also significantly higher, though less pronounced.

Unlike other research conducted primarily in Asia, this study was carried out on a European population, which strengthens the relevance of these findings for Western countries. The participants were generally healthy adults with a low initial cardiovascular risk. This shows that even in a population where heart disease is not yet present, this index can already identify those who may suffer from it in the future.

Researchers emphasize that using this index in health check-ups could improve the prevention of cardiometabolic diseases. By identifying at-risk individuals earlier, it would be possible to implement preventive measures, such as dietary changes, increased physical activity, or, if necessary, medication. This could help reduce the incidence of serious and costly diseases, both for individuals and healthcare systems.

The study also showed that the plasma atherogenic index was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular mortality, but not with an increase in all-cause mortality. This suggests that this index is specifically linked to heart and blood vessel problems, rather than other causes of death.

In summary, this research highlights the importance of monitoring this simple yet powerful blood indicator. It could become a key tool for doctors to better assess their patients’ risk and implement appropriate preventive measures.

Sources Used

Report Source

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40292-026-00807-3

Title: Atherogenic Index of Plasma as Predictor for Cardiovascular Events and Cardiometabolic Diseases:Findings from the PAMELA Study

Journal: High Blood Pressure & Cardiovascular Prevention

Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Authors: Alessandro Maloberti; Rita Facchetti; Ana Jelakovic; Cesare Cuspidi; Guido Grassi